Alpine Fault Earthquake Risk Soars

New research shows 75% chance of major quake within 50 years

Magnitude 9 event could wreak havoc along east coast

GNS Science has been producing earthquake forecasts since the late 1990s, but it wasn't until the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquakes that people really got interested. The Alpine Fault is one of the most active fault lines in the world, and it has a history of sudden movements. Scientists now believe we will see a magnitude-8 earthquake on the fault within the next 50 years, and there is a 2 to 14 percent chance of a magnitude 7 or above earthquake occurring within the next year.

New Zealand's Alpine Fault has ruptured in a major earthquake on average every 250 years. The last major earthquake on the fault was in 1717, and scientists believe that the next one is overdue. The new research shows that there is a 75 percent chance of the next major earthquake occurring within the next 50 years. A magnitude 9 earthquake could potentially wreak havoc along the east coast of New Zealand, causing widespread damage and loss of life.